Horizontal Analysis provides businesses a method to examine financial statement entries by looking at the documents’ number for a specific accounting time frame compared to the same length of a historical period for the same accounting line item.

Breaking the Process Down

It’s a way to measure trends and variances by looking at the current year’s values versus the reference year. This helps an analyst figure out if the values increase or decrease. It’s either done on an absolute value or a percentage change basis. The analysis provides a company’s growth and financial position against competitors.

This method is different compared to vertical analysis because vertical analysis looks at a single reporting period and measures the proportional relationship between items, compared to horizontal analysis evaluating multiple periods and multiple ratios for a more comprehensive approach.

Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) require uniform and standardized financial statements for adequate financial statement analysis. This entails consistent accounting practices and fundamental principles being employed annually. Comparability constraints mandates that the business’ financial statements are in a form that permits analysts to evaluate them against other competitors in the same field. This is where horizontal analysis comes into play, creating consistency.  

This analysis determines what impacts a company’s growth over time. For cyclical or seasonal companies, it lets analysts get a handle on what’s normal and what’s not. It also permits identification of variances in different product/business segments and how to project a company’s future performance.

Along with the three financial statements (balance sheet, cash flow statement, and income statement) providing working outcomes, it can similarly identify issues and strengths by looking at certain metrics like profit margins or the rate of inventory changing hands.  

If a company reports higher earnings per share due to increases in revenue or lowers its figures of the COGS (cost of goods sold), analysts looking at the interest coverage ratio or cash flow-to-debt ratio, for example, can use horizontal analysis to gauge if a business has enough liquidity for continued operations.

Real World Example of Horizontal Analysis

Let’s say Company X had revenue of $100 million in the previous year and accounts receivable of $200 million during the “base year.” This is compared to revenue of $300 million in the present year and accounts receivable of $600 million. Based on these numbers, the calculations are as follows:

Revenue Comparison

[($300 million – $100 million)/$100 million)] x 100 = 200 percent

Accounts Receivable

[($600 million – $300 million)/$300 million)] x 100 = 100 percent

When it comes to interpreting horizontal analysis, the process needs context to ensure it’s used appropriately. The most prominent consideration is understanding what contributed to the base year’s numbers and the current year’s numbers. Did the company sell off a segment that increased profitability, or did they face massive lawsuits or spend excessive amounts of capex to ensure their viability and competitiveness in the upcoming years?

The calculation is straightforward, but being able to delve into what happened – and why – is the role of the business owner and investor to determine the true health of the business.

When it comes to raw materials, especially for fossil fuels, it’s essential to evaluate existing and potential production capabilities for such companies. Using the EV/2P Ratio is a powerful tool when evaluating fossil fuel-related companies.

Defining the Ratio

This ratio is calculated by dividing a business’ enterprise value into the company’s reserves. It provides financial analysts, investors and internal business stakeholders with a snapshot of a company’s reserves and the business’ likelihood of preserving operation growth. This standardizes valuations, thereby allowing analysts to compare company-to-company financials.

How to Calculate EV/2P

Enterprise Value (EV) / Total 2P Reserves

Defined as: Enterprise Value = Equity (open market price) + Debt (open market price) – Cash and Cash Equivalents

2P = Proven and Probable Reserves

Illustrating the Calculation

If a company’s capitalization is $300 million and debt consisting of $225 million, along with $30 million for proven reserve value, $20 million in probable reserves, and $25 million in possible reserves, the company’s resulting enterprise value becomes:

$300 million + $225 million = $525 million

The 2P reserves is:

$30 million + $20 million = $50 million

Plugging the numbers into the original formula, it’s: $525 million / $50 million = 10.5x (multiple)

Based on the resulting 10.5 multiple, this ratio provides a current valuation that translates to for every $1 in 2P reserves equals $10.50 of a market valuation.

Reserves are how internal/external stakeholders value the production/growth potential of oil/gas companies. It’s broken down into two categories:

1.) P1 are proven reserves, which are the highest caliber reserves. There’s at least a 9 in 10 percent likelihood (or more) of recoverable reserves. It’s also known as P90.

2.) Probable reserve (also known as P50) has an even chance of either non-recoverability or realized recoverability. This is the next best, but a lesser grade than P1.

These two resource categories are referred to as 2P.

Putting it in Perspective

Depending on the company’s calculated EV/2P Ratio, the business owner or investor can determine a course of action to take.

If it’s higher, it’s more highly valued than its competitors based on the same level of 2P reserves; therefore, the company’s shares are more expensive against its peers. This can give investors pause because other undervalued stocks are more attractive due to a higher likelihood they’ll appreciate.

However, if a company is valued higher, but the company is more efficient or a higher performer, investors also may be interested because its production and earnings justify the higher valuation. That’s why looking at the metric in a silo is not effective.

Debt Concerns

When it comes to debt and analyzing this ratio, fossil fuel businesses are often highly levered since they use massive sums of debt for research and development and continued operations.

Since the EV value looks at debt and equity concurrently, analyzing a company’s capital structure is essential when comparing companies’ valuations. Essentially, if a company has too much debt and if interest rates suddenly increase or it can’t service debt if the price of crude plummets, it may run into debt servicing issues.

While this ratio is effective in providing a level playing field for analytical uses, it’s important to remember that it needs to be used in conjunction with comprehensive financial analysis.

Version 6

While Cash EBITDA isn’t recognized by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), it’s a way for company owners and investors to account for deferred revenue during valuation modeling. This financial metric measures a business’ year-over-year change in postponed revenue to analyze a company’s financial situation.

Defining EBITDA

Before Cash EBITDA is defined, EBITDA must be defined.

EBITDA = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization

This metric is used quite often in financial analysis. Business owners, investors and financial analysts use this metric to examine different companies’ fiscal achievements against sector competitors and to determine the business’ profits from its core functions. 

Since financial statements are required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and financial analysts are presented with varied filings, it still needs to be standardized for analysis. Though it’s not GAAP recognized, EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are often reported by companies that can make peer-to-peer businesses easier to compare financials.

Some believe it’s not the best comparison due to many factors, including varying tax profiles, capital structures, and capitalization policies that affect net income. It’s important to be mindful that EBITDA doesn’t give any details regarding how a business’ working capital varies with its reinvestment into a business’ capital expenditures.

Some say EBITDA overstates profitability. Others believe EBITDA doesn’t factor in the cost of assets in evaluating profitability. For example, if two companies have the same EBITDA, but one is highly levered, the company with no to little debt is in better shape. 

Determining EBITDA

The income statement has tax expenses, net income, and interest expenses on it. If not found on the cash flow statement, the depreciation and amortization figures may be found on the financial statement footnotes. While EBITDA is a start, further refinement of EBITDA by using Cash EBITDA is a better financial definition.

Calculating Cash EBITDA

It’s important to account for deferred revenue properly. Since deferred revenue is revenue remitted in advance for products or services to be delivered at a future date, and revenue is recorded on the income statement when fulfillment happens, Cash EBITDA helps businesses and investors obtain a better picture of a company’s financial situation.

The deferred revenue or prepayment is recorded as a liability since the product or service hasn’t been delivered. Once fulfillment has occurred, it’s recognized as income. Therefore, it’s calculated as follows:

Cash EBITDA = TTM EBITDA + Year-over-Year Change in Deferred Revenue 

TTM EBITDA is the 12-month trailing EBITA. Also referred to as last twelve months (LTM), it’s the immediate 12 months of operating earnings. This way, the figure can be updated on a monthly or quarterly basis as the company adds new accounts.

The second component, derived from the balance sheet, is the annual change in deferred revenue.    

This formula is important and useful because if a new client is booked in the first three months of the year, and during a valuation analysis, if Cash EBITDA isn’t calculated, it would skew the valuation since it wouldn’t include new accounts.        

While GAAP is an important institution in the accounting and financial industry, businesses and investors that use well-regarded financial metrics beyond GAAP standards can make better-informed decisions.