When it comes to raw materials, especially for fossil fuels, it’s essential to evaluate existing and potential production capabilities for such companies. Using the EV/2P Ratio is a powerful tool when evaluating fossil fuel-related companies.
This ratio is calculated by dividing a business’ enterprise value into the company’s reserves. It provides financial analysts, investors and internal business stakeholders with a snapshot of a company’s reserves and the business’ likelihood of preserving operation growth. This standardizes valuations, thereby allowing analysts to compare company-to-company financials.
Enterprise Value (EV) / Total 2P Reserves
Defined as: Enterprise Value = Equity (open market price) + Debt (open market price) – Cash and Cash Equivalents
2P = Proven and Probable Reserves
If a company’s capitalization is $300 million and debt consisting of $225 million, along with $30 million for proven reserve value, $20 million in probable reserves, and $25 million in possible reserves, the company’s resulting enterprise value becomes:
$300 million + $225 million = $525 million
The 2P reserves is:
$30 million + $20 million = $50 million
Plugging the numbers into the original formula, it’s: $525 million / $50 million = 10.5x (multiple)
Based on the resulting 10.5 multiple, this ratio provides a current valuation that translates to for every $1 in 2P reserves equals $10.50 of a market valuation.
Reserves are how internal/external stakeholders value the production/growth potential of oil/gas companies. It’s broken down into two categories:
1.) P1 are proven reserves, which are the highest caliber reserves. There’s at least a 9 in 10 percent likelihood (or more) of recoverable reserves. It’s also known as P90.
2.) Probable reserve (also known as P50) has an even chance of either non-recoverability or realized recoverability. This is the next best, but a lesser grade than P1.
These two resource categories are referred to as 2P.
Depending on the company’s calculated EV/2P Ratio, the business owner or investor can determine a course of action to take.
If it’s higher, it’s more highly valued than its competitors based on the same level of 2P reserves; therefore, the company’s shares are more expensive against its peers. This can give investors pause because other undervalued stocks are more attractive due to a higher likelihood they’ll appreciate.
However, if a company is valued higher, but the company is more efficient or a higher performer, investors also may be interested because its production and earnings justify the higher valuation. That’s why looking at the metric in a silo is not effective.
When it comes to debt and analyzing this ratio, fossil fuel businesses are often highly levered since they use massive sums of debt for research and development and continued operations.
Since the EV value looks at debt and equity concurrently, analyzing a company’s capital structure is essential when comparing companies’ valuations. Essentially, if a company has too much debt and if interest rates suddenly increase or it can’t service debt if the price of crude plummets, it may run into debt servicing issues.
While this ratio is effective in providing a level playing field for analytical uses, it’s important to remember that it needs to be used in conjunction with comprehensive financial analysis.
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