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What to Expect from U.S. Tax Policy in 2026

4 min read

What to Expect from U.S. Tax Policy in 2026After a whirlwind 2025 that produced what may be the largest tax bill in American history, the coming year looks dramatically different. Tax policy experts are predicting a legislative standstill, a turbulent tax filing season, and lingering questions about how new provisions will work when put into practice.

A Year of Legislative Gridlock

The forecast for 2026 tax legislation is bleak. With Republicans clinging to an impossibly thin House majority of just 218 or 219 seats following recent resignations, passing any significant bills will be extraordinarily difficult. Every single Republican vote would be needed to advance legislation through reconciliation, and as 2025 demonstrated, keeping the caucus unified is no small feat.

While there has been discussion about a potential second reconciliation bill, most observers view this as wishful thinking. If such a bill were to materialize, it would likely focus on technical corrections to lingering Tax Cuts and Jobs Act issues and problems that emerged from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. One notable concern involves accelerated research credits that did not deliver the benefits lawmakers intended because of unexpected interactions with the corporate alternative minimum tax.

The more pressing concern will simply be keeping the government running. A January deadline looms to avoid another shutdown and, given the contentious relationship between House Republicans and Democrats throughout 2025, even basic funding bills face uncertain prospects. With midterm elections consuming attention in the second half of the year, legislative bandwidth for tax policy will be virtually nonexistent.

A Rough Road Ahead for Taxpayers

The 2026 tax filing season is shaping up to be challenging. The IRS has experienced unprecedented upheaval, losing somewhere between 20 percent and 25 percent of its workforce through a combination of voluntary resignations and reductions in force. Many of these departures came from enforcement divisions, though customer service will also feel the impact.

Leadership instability has compounded these problems. The agency cycled through roughly seven commissioners or acting commissioners in 2025 alone. Former Congressman Billy Long was confirmed as commissioner but lasted less than two months before departing under unclear circumstances. The Treasury Secretary has since taken direct oversight of the agency, and an IRS CEO position was created for the first time in the agency’s history. No new commissioner nominee has been put forward, and there is currently no Senate-confirmed chief counsel either.

For taxpayers who need more than basic return processing, this means longer wait times, fewer answered phone calls, and potential delays. Those filing straightforward W-2 returns seeking refunds will likely fare better than individuals or businesses with complicated situations requiring IRS assistance. Audit rates will decline intentionally, as the current administration has committed to scaling back the enforcement emphasis of the Biden years.

The Justice Department’s Tax Division also has been gutted, losing many qualified litigators who previously maintained an exceptional track record against large taxpayers in court. This erosion of enforcement capability may not immediately move voluntary compliance numbers, but continued cuts will eventually catch up with the system.

Unresolved International Questions

The relationship between U.S. tax policy and the global minimum tax framework under Pillar 2 remains unsettled. Republicans declined to include a retaliatory tax provision known as section 899 in last year’s legislation based on an agreement with G20 nations. If that agreement unravels, there may be pressure to revisit retaliatory measures, though passing such legislation with current House margins seems unlikely.

American companies operating internationally could face pressure in foreign jurisdictions if the United States fails to align with Pillar 2 requirements. While many in Washington believe the international minimum tax framework will collapse, the reality on the ground suggests otherwise, and this disconnect might force future legislative action.

Conclusion

The bottom line for 2026: expect a holding pattern on major tax legislation and brace for a difficult filing season as an understaffed and unsettled IRS works to implement last year’s massive changes.

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5 Private Equity Predictions for 2026

3 min read

5 Private Equity Predictions for 2026For private equity investors, 2026 is going to be a good year. Financing conditions are stabilizing, interest rates are decreasing, and valuations are beginning to reset. Further, these firms are moving to growth-at-any-cost strategies, deeper diligence, and more disciplined risk underwriting. Here’s a high-level look at a few things you can expect.

PE firms thrive despite policy and market uncertainty. Driven by shifting tariffs, interest-rate cycles, and election-year fiscal debates, 2025 was certainly a challenge. This year, many firms will re-enter the market and hit the ground running with greater conviction, supported by stronger diligence, scenario modeling, and operational planning. A few tactics include doubling down on operational risk management at the outset; leveraging advanced technologies to improve transparency and accuracy, specifically in terms of finance, tax, and regulatory compliance; and diversifying portfolios across sectors, geographies, and business models.

In 2026, deal volume and value will appreciate. This prediction is based on declining borrowing costs and uncertainty around tariffs declining. Leading the acceleration are mega funds and middle-market managers with larger funds driving growth in deal value. But strategic buyers will also play a defining role in this escalation. According to a survey by BDO, 43 percent of fund managers say most competition for deals will come from strategic acquirers. Here’s why: Their ability to pay higher prices, driven by operational synergies and stronger balance sheets, will intensify pressure on PE funds on the buy side. Consequently, this creates more favorable exit conditions for PE funds looking to sell assets.

PE is betting on AI, big-time. Firms are making sizable investments in industries that are the backbone of AI transformation, including data centers, energy producersand network hardware suppliers. While these categories are capital-intensive and tap into measurable, long-term market demand, PE’s interest in AI expands beyond sector strategy and deal sourcing, as firms are looking at how to leverage AI not only for fund and portfolio company management, but also the investment life cycle (due diligence, fraud detection, standardized reporting), which improves the way decisions are made. Good news for investors, indeed.

Valuations will remain high for top-tier deals. Primarily, this isdriven by firms willing to pay premiums for companies considered resilient and/or strategically essential. Common features these businesses share are predictable cash flows, defensible business models, and a position in sectors with secular growth, such as AI, infrastructure, or technology-driven industries. Why? They’re better equipped to withstand macroeconomic volatility compared with other kinds of investments.

Lessons were learned from the 2021 buying frenzy. This eventful year was comprised of abundant liquidity, low interest rates, and pent-up post-pandemic demand, which led to aggressive dealmaking. Now that macro-conditions have shifted, those 2021 deals are struggling to perform. This year, fund managers are expected to learn from the dynamics of years past and recalibrate their strategies, looking more closely at valuations and focusing on fewer but high-quality deals. This builds greater flexibility for exit planning, whether it’s traditional sponsor-to-sponsor, strategic sales, or IPO pathways. For the private equity investors, 2026 might well supersede the revenue-rich dynamic of 2021.

These are a few of the variables that will affect the private equity market. That said, success will most likely depend less on timing markets and more on being operationally prepared to seize the lucrative, high-quality opportunities when they arise.

Sources

https://www.bdo.com/insights/industries/private-equity/2026-private-equity-predictions#:~:text=In%202026%2C%20many%20firms%20will,elevated%20relative%20to%20historical%20norms

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Accounting Considerations for Senior Debt

3 min read

What is Senior DebtAlso known as a Senior Note, Senior Debt consists of a company’s outstanding loans collateralized by the business’ assets. As the name implies, Senior Debt holders are the first claimants of the business’ cash flows and/or liquidated assets if that business defaults on its debt and files for bankruptcy. Subordinated or junior debt in the form of Preferred and Common Equity shares has claims to any subsequent assets – but only after Senior Debt holders are made whole. 

Originating via financial institutions, revolving credit facilities, and Senior Term Debt are the primary ways companies obtain financing. Whether the debt is funded by another business, an individual backer, or a traditional bank lender, if the borrowing company files for bankruptcy and liquidates its assets, Senior Bondholders are first in line for available repayment.

Senior Debt Characteristics and Structure

Much like any type of borrowed money, each tier has different interest rates and amortization schedules, including Senior Debt. Senior Debt issuers put terms in the debenture restricting companies from issuing additional, lower-tier debt. Debt issuers often require borrowers to maintain specific credit profiles, which are determined by financing ratios such as interest service coverage and debt service coverage.

Other stipulations may include requiring the borrower to maintain or refrain from business activities beyond their essential commercial functions. If the stipulations are flouted, the lender may retract, modify the borrowing terms, or mandate immediate payment of accrued interest and principal. It’s important to note that since Senior Debt has more restrictive terms, interest rates are generally lower compared to unsecured/less senior debt.

When it comes to unsecured debt, primarily junior or subordinated debt, although it’s not collateralized, the terms stipulate that the lender(s) have a claim to the company’s assets in case of bankruptcy/liquidation and are next in line to get paid off from the assets of the company, minus any pledged assets for secured debt debtholders.

Accounting Considerations

The first step to account for Senior Debt is to break it up into short-term and long-term debt (within 12 months and longer than 12 months). For example, long-term debt, which turns into long-term liabilities from short-term obligations, like accounts payable, is recorded on the company’s balance sheet. This generally happens when the short-term obligations are re-classified into a lengthier note.

If a business obtains a $10 million bank loan, secured by their machinery and other assets, for a new product line, with a 7 percent interest rate for 15 years, along with the business assets, liabilities and shareholders’ equity, the long-term portion would be reported on the company’s balance sheet. It would be recorded as a liability on the balance sheet, where any other long-term debt and bonds issued or borrowed by the company.

The income statement would document its loan interest. It’s calculated by taking the principal multiplied by the interest rate.  Once the interest is determined, it’s classified as an expense on the income statement, lowering the company’s net income and profits. As the loan’s principal is paid over the 15-year loan life, a set amount of the loan principal is repaid each year.

Conclusion

Senior Debt can be an effective way to obtain funding, but businesses must understand how funding agreements work and how to properly account for them.