Category: General Business News

When it comes to the risk of default, Moody’s found that during COVID-19, American businesses had a 7.8 percent chance of defaulting. This is compared to a low of 4 percent in 2021, but lower than the current 9.2 percent risk of default, according to a March 2025 report by the rating agency.

Also known as cash flow available for debt service, CFADS determines how much cash is available to service debt obligations. It looks at different cash inflows/outflows to show both internal (owners and managers) and external audiences (investors) how efficient (or not) a business is in its ability to produce cash flows and manage its debts without defaulting.

While one method businesses use is balancing client sales, it is also common to look at various accounting entries, including Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA). The results of CFADS are often used by financial analysts when creating coverage ratios, including the project life coverage ratio (PLCR), the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), and the loan life coverage ratio (LLCR). It can sometimes take the place of EBITDA in certain circumstances. It’s important to note that the three coverage ratios show how well a plan is able to service and not default on debt throughout the entire project’s period.

For example, the DSCR = CFADS / Scheduled Debt Service (Interest + Principal Obligations)

Once this is calculated based on the company’s project specifications, if the result is greater than 1, then it signifies and gives greater confidence to internal and external audiences that the company will be able to meet its milestones and final payments.

The most efficient formula for calculating CFADS is as follows:

EBITDA – Taxes – Positive or Negative Result of Working Capital – Capital Expenditures for Maintenance Only

$200,000 (EBITDA) – $30,000 (Taxes) + $20,000 (assuming there’s a negative $20,000 change in working capital) – $40,000 (assuming the capital expenditure investing in maintenance)

CFADS = $150,000

Sometimes the calculation includes dividends, which need to be factored into the calculation. This example assumes it is not part of the calculation.

Interpreting Results

It’s important to understand that a more detailed analysis helps all audiences determine if the projected cash flow is available for different claimants of the business. While most of the calculations are done via the waterfall model, it’s important to analyze it based upon senior and junior debt, along with equity. If a company declares bankruptcy, senior debt holders are the first priority to be made whole (or as whole as possible, depending on the circumstances). Senior debt is collateralized or secured with company assets that are sold off during bankruptcy. From there, junior debt holders are next in line, followed by convertible note holders, then preferred stockholders, and finally common stockholders.

While this calculation is only one part of the way internal and external stakeholders can measure a company’s financial health, with the chance of more firms defaulting on debt, it’s another tool in a financial analyst’s toolbox.

When it comes to analyzing a company’s financials, there are many avenues we can take. One way is through multiples; calculating the EV/2P multiple is the focus of this analysis.

This ratio looks at a business’ enterprise value against its proven and probable 2P reserves. While ratios or multiples are used in valuing companies, this metric is used chiefly to value gas and oil companies for energy sector analysts. Analysts use this calculation to determine the likelihood that a company’s reserve resources can underpin its functioning and expansion efforts. Along with the ratio, analysts use micro and macro factors to determine a company’s financial health, its growth prospects, and whether the business is undervalued or overvalued.

This multiple is similar in comparison to other valuation multiples such as Price-to-Book (P/B), Price-to-Earnings (PE), Enterprise Value/Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. While these other metrics can also value an oil or gas company, understanding how it’s calculated is essential to why it is sector specific.  

Breaking Down the EV/2P Ratio

EV = Market Value of Equity + Market Value of Debt – Cash and Cash Equivalents

It’s determined by the complete market worth asserted by the bond and equity holders (net of cash).

2P = Proven Reserves + Probable Reserves

The reserves of a company give analysts and investors an idea of the likelihood of the recoverability of reserves being produced and assisting the company’s growth. Proven reserves, often denoted as “P1” or “P90,” are rated at a 90 percent chance of recovering successfully. Probable reserves, also called “P50,” have a 1-in-2 chance of recovering. Both reserve types and their likelihood of being recovered are, therefore, referred to as 2P.  

It’s important to note a third category referred to as “possible reserves.” This category is not factored into the company’s valuation because the 10 percent to 50 percent likelihood of reserve recoverability is too low.  

Example

Illustrating how it’s calculated gives a more complete picture of how to analyze the results. For example, say a business‘ market capitalization is $200 million with a net debt of $100 million, giving it an enterprise value of $300 million. Assuming the company has $10 million of probable reserves, $20 million of proven reserves, and $15 million of possible reserves, the calculation is as follows:

EV = $300 million ($200 million + $100 million)

2P reserves = $30 million ($10 million + $20 million)

Therefore, $300 million/$30 million = $10

Every dollar of its market capitalization is worth $10 based on its 2P reserves. Once the calculation is determined, the ratio of the EV/2P is measured against the energy sector’s average ratio. The higher the EV/2P ratio, especially against its peers, the higher valuation the company has compared to other companies with the same amount of 2P reserves. The company’s shares are sold at a higher multiple than other companies.

It’s important to keep in mind that if a company’s financials are stronger or it’s more efficient and provides a better prospect for investors against its peers, its lofty valuation may be justified. It’s also important to not look at valuing companies exclusively with this ratio/multiple but also review other metrics and the macro-economic conditions before making a final investment decision.

While this multiple is primarily used for the energy industry, those who use it should be mindful to not analyze a company in that lens only, but to use a holistic analysis when valuing any type of company.

The subscription economy, according to Forbes, is expected to reach $1.5 trillion in revenue for businesses. With the potential likely realized this year, it’s vital to understand how it is tracked – and more importantly, how it’s able to be tracked on a separate basis.

Also known as net dollar retention (NDR), this metric calculates the proportion of recurring revenue kept from present clients, including upsells and churn, during a defined time frame. Net revenue retention (NRR) evaluates a business’s potential to keep and increase sales from their present clients.

It looks at how well a company leverages existing customer relationships to increase sales through add-ons, complimentary services, etc. It focuses on the long-term growth of recurring revenue from these relationships. It’s calculated as follows:

NRR = (Starting MRR + Expansion MRR – Churn MRR) ÷ Starting MRR

Based on the following assumptions:

Starting monthly recurring revenue: $200,000

Expansion monthly recurring revenue: $40,000

Churn monthly recurring revenue: $20,000

NRR = ($200,000 + $40,000 – $20,000) / $200,000 = 1.10 or 110%

Based on this result, the company is increasing its revenue from existing customers faster than it’s failing to keep revenue from customer churn, an important metric showing growth.

The following factors impact the formula:

Starting MRR is also referred to as the baseline recurring revenue.

Expansion MRR refers to the added sales from newly added clients, upselling, upgrades, and additions to existing customers’ services.

Churn MRR is the sales missed by customers who stopped or lowered their level and type of services with the company.

Defining a Healthy Revenue Retention Rate

Companies that have a score of more than 100 percent show they’re bringing in more revenue from the existing customer base versus what the company is losing from customer churn. If, however, it’s less than 100 percent, customer satisfaction might be lacking, and customers may either be lost or simply not interested in additional services. Since acquiring new customers is more expensive than keeping current ones, it can lead to reflection on how to improve retention rates.

Journal Entry for Recurring Revenue

Assuming there’s a 12-month contract signed for monthly services, the journal entry would be as follows for a $1,000/monthly payment for a total of $12,000.

Once the $1,000 subscription income has been earned, the following journal entry would be entered.

While each industry and business are different, using this metric can help companies determine if there’s a customer retention problem; then they can start the investigation on how to increase retention for the future.

Sources

https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/10/27/the-truth-about-recurring-revenue/